Strength is Risk

The Margin of Safety for any stock is larger when its sector and the market are weak.

Archive for the ‘News and commentary’ Category

11/30/10, environment = NEGATIVE/negative/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/1 to weak/-1 net sector changes, 8 strong/3 weak wavering (+3/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  none
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch), negative secondary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes down, from -1.3% (Nasdaq 100) to -0.4% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  1 negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 9 negative/weak sectors in 10 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  8 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (+3).  3 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:34 pm

11/29/10, environment = NEGATIVE/negative/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 0 to strong/1 to weak/-1 net sector changes, 5 strong/3 weak wavering (-1/+2), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  none
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch), negative secondary analysis reading (DOWN)

Today’s action:  indexes down, from -0.4% (Nasdaq 100) to -0.1% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  1 negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 8 negative/weak sectors in 9 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  5 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (-1).  3 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (+2).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 6:36 pm

2010-11-26, environment = NEGATIVE/neutral/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 6 strong/1 weak wavering (+3/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  none
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  neutral secondary analysis reading (DOWN)
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes down, from -0.9% (Dow 30) to -0.3% (Nasdaq 100).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 7 negative/weak sectors in 8 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  6 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (+3).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 6:29 pm

2010-11-24, environment = NEGATIVE/mixed-positive/higher (unch/UP/unch): 0 to strong/1 to weak/-1 net sector changes, 3 strong/1 weak wavering (-2/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  none
Mildly Favorable due to: mixed-positive secondary analysis reading (UP)
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 1.4% (Dow 30) to 2.3% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  1 negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 7 negative/weak sectors in 7 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  3 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (-2).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 6:22 pm

2010-11-23, environment = NEGATIVE/negative/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 0 to strong/2 to weak/-2 net sector changes, 5 strong/1 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  none
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch), negative secondary analysis reading (DOWN)

Today’s action:  indexes down, from -1.6% (Nasdaq 100) to -1% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  2 negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 6 negative/weak sectors in 6 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  5 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 6:20 pm

2010-11-22, environment = NEGATIVE/neutral/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 0 to strong/1 to weak/-1 net sector changes, 5 strong/1 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  none
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  neutral secondary analysis reading (DOWN)
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.2% (Dow 30) to 0.7% (Nasdaq 100).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  1 negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 4 negative/weak sectors in 5 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  5 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 6:18 pm

2010-11-19, environment = NEGATIVE/mixed-positive/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 5 strong/1 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  none
Mildly Favorable due to:  mixed-positive secondary analysis reading (DOWN)
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0% (Nasdaq 100) to 0.5% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 3 negative/weak sectors in 4 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  5 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 6:14 pm

2010-11-17, environment = NEGATIVE/negative/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 5 strong/1 weak wavering (+2/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  none
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch), negative secondary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.1% (Dow 30) to 0.6% (Midcap 400).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 3 negative/weak sectors in 2 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  5 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (+2).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 6:06 pm

2010-11-16, environment = NEGATIVE/negative/higher (DOWN/unch/unch) NEW STREAK: 0 to strong/3 to weak/-3 net sector changes, 3 strong/1 weak wavering (+2/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  none
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (DOWN), negative secondary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes down, from -2% (Russell 2000) to -1.6% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  3 negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 3 negative/weak sectors in one day.     Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  3 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (+2).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 5:59 pm

2010-11-15, environment = POSITIVE/negative/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/1 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative secondary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.3% (Nasdaq 100) to 0.2% (Midcap 400).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 51 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 5:40 pm

2010-11-12, environment = POSITIVE/negative/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/1 weak wavering (+1/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative secondary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes down, from -1.7% (Russell 2000) to -0.8% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 50 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (+1).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 1:11 am

2010-11-11, environment = POSITIVE/negative/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/1 weak wavering (-1/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative secondary analysis reading (DOWN)

Today’s action:  indexes down, from -0.7% (Nasdaq 100) to -0.2% (Midcap 400).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 49 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (-1).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 1:08 am

2010-11-10, environment = POSITIVE/mixed-positive/higher (unch/UP/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/1 weak wavering (+1/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  mixed-positive secondary analysis reading (UP)
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0.1% (Dow 30) to 1.2% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 48 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (+1).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 1:05 am

2010-11-09, environment = POSITIVE/neutral/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/1 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  neutral secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes down, from -1.5% (Russell 2000) to -0.5% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 47 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 1:03 am

2010-11-08, environment = POSITIVE/neutral/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/1 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  neutral secondary analysis reading (DOWN)
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.3% (Dow 30) to 0.1% (Nasdaq 100).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 46 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 1:01 am

2010-11-05, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/1 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from 0% (Nasdaq 100) to 0.6% (Midcap 400).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 45 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 12:58 am

2010-11-04, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/1 weak wavering (-1/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 1.4% (Nasdaq 100) to 2.6% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 44 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (-1).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 12:56 am

2010-11-03, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/UP/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/1 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (UP)
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0.2% (Midcap 400) to 0.4% (S&P 500).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 43 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 12:53 am

2010-11-02, environment = POSITIVE/mixed-positive/higher (unch/UP/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/1 weak wavering (0/-1), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):

Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  mixed-positive secondary analysis reading (UP)
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0.6% (Dow 30) to 2.1% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 42 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (-1).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 12:48 am

2010-11-01, environment = POSITIVE/neutral/higher (unch/UP/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/2 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to:  none
Neutral due to:  neutral secondary analysis reading (UP)
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.7% (Russell 2000) to 0.2% (Nasdaq 100).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 27 positive/strong sectors in 41 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (unchanged).  2 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

December 28, 2010 at 12:37 am

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