Strength is Risk

The Margin of Safety for any stock is larger when its sector and the market are weak.

Archive for the ‘Analysis’ Category

12/31/10, environment = POSITIVE/mixed-positive/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/0 weak wavering (+1/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: mixed-positive secondary analysis reading (DOWN)
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.8% (Russell 2000) to 0.1% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 8 positive/strong sectors in 20 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (+1).  No negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:57 pm

12/30/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/0 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.3% (Nasdaq 100) to 0.1% (Midcap 400).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 8 positive/strong sectors in 19 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  No negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:57 pm

12/29/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 1 to strong/0 to weak/+1 net sector changes, 0 strong/0 weak wavering (0/-1), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0.1% (Dow 30) to 0.3% (Midcap 400).

One positive/strong sector change from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 8 positive/strong sectors in 18 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  No negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (-1).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:56 pm

12/28/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 1 to strong/0 to weak/+1 net sector changes, 0 strong/1 weak wavering (0/-1), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.4% (Russell 2000) to 0.2% (Dow 30).

One positive/strong sector change from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 7 positive/strong sectors in 17 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  One negative/weak sector close to changing to strong  (-1).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:55 pm

12/27/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 1 to strong/0 to weak/+1 net sector changes, 0 strong/2 weak wavering (-1/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.2% (Dow 30) to 0.4% (Russell 2000).

One positive/strong sector change from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 6 positive/strong sectors in 16 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (-1).  2 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:55 pm

12/23/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/2 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.3% (Nasdaq 100) to 0.1% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 5 positive/strong sectors in 15 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (unchanged).  2 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:54 pm

12/22/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/2 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0% (Russell 2000) to 0.3% (S&P 500).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 5 positive/strong sectors in 14 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (unchanged).  2 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:54 pm

12/21/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/2 weak wavering (+1/-1), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0.5% (Dow 30) to 1.1% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 5 positive/strong sectors in 13 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (+1).  2 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (-1).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:53 pm

12/20/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 1 to strong/0 to weak/+1 net sector changes, 0 strong/3 weak wavering (0/-1), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.1% (Dow 30) to 0.4% (Russell 2000).

One positive/strong sector change from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 5 positive/strong sectors in 12 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  3 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (-1).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:52 pm

12/17/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/UP/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/4 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (UP)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.1% (Dow 30) to 0.4% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 4 positive/strong sectors in 11 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  4 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:51 pm

12/16/10, environment = POSITIVE/mixed-positive/higher (unch/UP/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/4 weak wavering (-1/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: mixed-positive secondary analysis reading (UP)
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0.4% (Dow 30) to 1.1% (Russell 2000).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 4 positive/strong sectors in 10 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (-1).  4 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:50 pm

12/15/10, environment = POSITIVE/neutral/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 1 strong/4 weak wavering (+1/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  neutral secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes down, from -0.5% (S&P 500) to -0.2% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 4 positive/strong sectors in 9 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (+1).  4 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:43 pm

12/14/10, environment = POSITIVE/neutral/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/4 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  neutral secondary analysis reading (DOWN)
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.1% (Midcap 400) to 0.4% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 4 positive/strong sectors in 8 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  4 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:43 pm

12/13/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 0 strong/4 weak wavering (0/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from -0.6% (Russell 2000) to 0.2% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 4 positive/strong sectors in 7 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  4 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:41 pm

12/10/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/UP/unch): 1 to strong/0 to weak/+1 net sector changes, 0 strong/4 weak wavering (0/-1), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (UP)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0.4% (Dow 30) to 1.2% (Russell 2000).

One positive/strong sector change from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 4 positive/strong sectors in 6 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  4 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (-1).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:40 pm

12/09/10, environment = POSITIVE/mixed-positive/higher (unch/DOWN/unch): 1 to strong/0 to weak/+1 net sector changes, 0 strong/5 weak wavering (0/+1), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: mixed-positive secondary analysis reading (DOWN)
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from 0% (Dow 30) to 0.5% (Russell 2000).

One positive/strong sector change from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 3 positive/strong sectors in 5 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  5 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (+1).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:40 pm

12/07/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 1 to strong/0 to weak/+1 net sector changes, 0 strong/5 weak wavering (0/+2), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (unch), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes mixed, from 0% (Dow 30) to 0.5% (Russell 2000).

One positive/strong sector change from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 2 positive/strong sectors in 3 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  No positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (unchanged).  5 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (+2).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:38 pm

12/03/10, environment = POSITIVE/positive/higher NEW POSITIVE STREAK (UP/unch/unch): 1 to strong/0 to weak/+1 net sector changes, 1 strong/3 weak wavering (-1/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive primary analysis reading (UP), positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0.2% (Dow 30) to 0.7% (Russell 2000).

One positive/strong sector change from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 1 positive/strong sector in one day.     Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  One positive/strong sector close to changing to weak (-1).  3 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:37 pm

12/02/10, environment = NEGATIVE/positive/higher (unch/unch/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 2 strong/3 weak wavering (-4/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive secondary analysis reading (unch)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 0.9% (Dow 30) to 1.3% (Midcap 400).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 9 negative/weak sectors in 12 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  2 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (-4).  3 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:36 pm

12/01/10, environment = NEGATIVE/positive/higher (unch/UP/unch): 0 to strong/0 to weak/0 net sector changes, 6 strong/3 weak wavering (-2/0), low volatility (unch)

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U.S. STOCK ENVIRONMENT BOTTOM LINE FOR INITIATING NEW LONG POSITIONS (please see * at bottom of post):
Favorable due to:  positive secondary analysis reading (UP)
Mildly Favorable due to: none
Neutral due to:  none
Mildly Unfavorable due to:  none
Unfavorable due to:  higher risk level (unch), negative primary analysis reading (unch)

Today’s action:  indexes up, from 2.1% (Midcap 400) to 2.3% (Dow 30).

No positive/strong sector changes from weak to strong.  No negative/weak sector changes.  Current streak 9 negative/weak sectors in 11 days.   Prior streaks are listed below, with most recent streaks listed last.  6 positive/strong sectors close to changing to weak (-2).  3 negative/weak sectors close to changing to strong  (unchanged).  Current phase volatility is low (unchanged).

Prior Streak Summary (listed oldest to newest):

Positive

Written by bdegracia

February 14, 2011 at 10:35 pm

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